2025 NBA Finals Preview

One state is known for football. The other is a basketball haven. 

Oklahoma and Indiana are both blue collar. Football. Barbecue. Basketball. Sugar cream pie. Lee Roy Selmon and Adrian Peterson. Larry Bird and Shawn Kemp (Bobby Knight, too, by association).

When the NBA teams from those respective states meet in the 2025 NBA Finals, which begins Thursday night from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, it will be the dawn of a new NBA era. Gone are the super teams. Gone are free agents congregating in big high profile locales.

Both of these teams were built organically. Both teams homegrown. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder won 68 regular season games and got here via a 4-1 first round series victory over the Memphis Grizzlies (that included a win of 51 points), a hard fought seven games against the Denver Nuggets, and a decisive 4-1 series win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are the second youngest Finals’ team in NBA history - at 25 years and seven months, the only team younger was the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers (25 years of age). The Thunder are headed to the Finals for the first time since 2012, when they lost 4-1 to LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and the Miami Heat. The franchise has won no championships in Oklahoma City, but won one as the Seattle SuperSonics, in 1979 over the Washington Bullets in five games.

The Indiana Pacers won 50 regular season games and got here first via a 4-1 opening round series victory over the Milwaukee Bucks that included finishing Game 5 with an 8-0 run in overtime. Then the Pacers slayed the East’s top seed, the Cleveland Cavaliers, in five games, and took care of the New York Knicks in six games. The Pacers last made the Finals in the year 2000, where they lost 4-2 to the Los Angeles Lakers in what was Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal’s first championship coronation. The Pacers have never won an NBA title, but they did however win three titles in the ABA (1970, 1972. 1973) led by Hall of Fame forward Mel Daniels and coached by Bob “Slick” Leonard. 

All season long this 2024-25 campaign, the Thunder were the favorites. The Pacers were the underdog. Perhaps not even on the radar.

And that is no different to how this series appears going in, with the Thunder the heavy favorites as they wield the league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a roster that pushes the pace offensively and guards furiously. The Pacers play fast, have athletes as the Thunder do, and are young, too. Their head coach, the seasoned Rick Carlisle, is a major reason why they’re representing the Eastern Conference in Thursday’s final. With +500 odds to win the Finals, the Pacers are Rocky Balboa to the Thunder’s Ivan Drago.

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How They Got Here 

Oklahoma City (68-14)

Defeated Memphis 4-0 in Round 1 

Defeated Denver 4-3 in Round 2 

Defeated Minnesota 4-1 in Western Conference Finals

Indiana (50-32)

Defeated Milwaukee 4-1 in Round 1 

Defeated Cleveland 4-1 in Round 2 

Defeated New York 4-2 in Eastern Conference Finals

Tale of the Tape

Regular season stats

Thunder

PPG 120.5 (4th)

Opp. PPG 107.3 (3rd)

Offensive Rating 111.9 (3rd)

Defensive Rating 106.6 (1st)

Rebounds 44.8 (9th)

OREB 10.6 (15th); DREB 34.2 (5th)

FG% 48.2% (5th)

Opp. FG% 43.6% (1st)

3PT% 37.4 (6th); 3PM 14.5 (6th); 3PA 38.8 (10th)

FTM 16.7 (23rd); FTA 20.4 (26th); FT% 81.9 (1st)

Pacers

PPG 117.4 (7th)

Opp. PPG 115.1 (16th)

Offensive Rating 115.4 (9th)

Defensive Rating 113.3 (14th)

Rebounds 41.8 (28th)

OREB 9.2 (29th); DREB 32.7 (22nd)

FG% 48.8% (3rd)

Opp. FG% 47.4 (26th)

3P% 36.8% (9th); 3PM 13.2 (15th); 3PA 35.8 (21st) FTM 17 (10th); FTA 21.6 (19th); FT% 78.9 (9th) 

Playoff stats

Points Per Game

IND 117.4 (2nd)

OKC 117.1 (3rd)

Field Goal Percentage

IND 49.7% (1st)

OKC 46.4% (4th)

3-Point Percentage

IND 40.1% (1st)

OKC 33.6% (13th)

3-Point Attempts

OKC 37.4 (7th)

IND 33.4 (11th)

Free-Throws Attempted

OKC 24.1 (5th)

IND 23.8 (6th)

Free-Throw Percentage

IND 79.8% (5th)

OKC 79.0% (7th)

Rebounds

OKC 44.3 (4th)

IND 39.6 (12th)

Assists

IND 28.1 (1st)

OKC 25.3 (3rd) 

Turnovers 

OKC 11.8 (2nd)

IND 12.7 (5th)

Plus/Minus 

OKC +10.8 (2nd)

IND +4.1 (4th)

Defensive FG% 

OKC 42.6% (1st)

IND 45.4% (7th)

Points Off Turnovers 

OKC 23.8 (1st)

IND 18.5 (2nd)

Fast-break Points

OKC 17.8 (1st)

IND 15.5 (3rd)

Points in the Paint 

OKC 50.8 (1st)

IND 44.6 (9th)

Top 3 Performers (Regular Season) 

Oklahoma City

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32.7 points, 6.4 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 51.4% FG

Jalen Williams 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 48.4% FG

Chet Holmgren 15.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 49% FG

Bench: Aaron Wiggins 12.0 points, 48.8% FG

Indiana

Tyrese Haliburton 18.6 points, 9.2 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 47.3% FG

Pascal Siakam: 20.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 51.9% FG

Myles Turner 15.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 48.1% FG

Bench: Bennedict Mathurin 16.1 points, 45.8% FG

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Notes

Chet Holmgren has six double-doubles in this postseason

Gilgeous-Alexander has 11 games of 30+ points this postseason. He has played 11 games against the Pacers in his career, and has scored over 30 points five times, including 39 points, 30 points, 45 points, and 33 points in his last four against the Pacers.

Gilgeous-Alexander is just the eighth player in league history to make a Finals appearance in the same season that he won league MVP. In that company he joins Stephen Curry (2015), Allen Iverson (2001), Karl Malone (1997), Charles Barkley (1993), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971), Willis Reed (1970), and Bob Cousy (1957).

Siakam has three games of 30+ points this postseason (all vs. NYK). From the field in the first three rounds he has shot 55.6%, 53.7%, and 52.4%. On December 26, 2024 against the Thunder, Siakam scored 22 points and had 10 rebounds.

Haliburton in his last seven games is averaging 22.4 points, 10.1 assists, and 6.0 rebounds and in the playoffs is averaging 18.8 points and 9.8 assists, and 5.7 rebounds on 46.6% shooting. 

In eight career games versus the Thunder, Haliburton has averaged 13.4 points, 9.9 assists, and 4.1 rebounds. This season, on November 26 in a 120-114 loss to the Thunder, he was limited to 4 points. On March 29, in a 132-111 loss, he scored 18 points. When Game 1 tips off, Haliburton will join Magic Johnson as the only other player to enter an NBA Finals with 150 or more assists and less than 50 turnovers in a playoff run.

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Both teams have quality depth, with the Thunder bringing Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, and Wiggins off the bench. If he needs to, Mark Daigneault can also insert Kenrich Williams into the game.

Caruso and Wallace are two of the top wing defenders in the NBA (as is starting two-guard Lu Dort) and Isaiah Joe is a knock down shooter. Wiggins has seen a dip in playoff minutes (his highest is 26, in the Thunder’s 51-point win over the Grizzlies, but other than that has not played over 19 minutes in any playoff game in this run), but gives you a scoring punch. Caruso has taken the reins as the Thunder’s top bench performer - he has scored in double figures eight times this postseason - 13, 10, 20, 10, 13, 10, 11, and 10. He averaged 10.4 points in the Thunder’s 4-3 series win over the Nuggets.

The Pacers supply Mathurin, TJ McConnell, and Obi Toppin out of their second unit. Mathurin is a scoring guard who gets to the free-throw line and has good size at 6 foot, 6 inches. In Games 4 and 5 against the Knicks, he scored 20 points (10-for-11 from the line in 12 minutes) and 23 points (25 minutes). Seven times this postseason he has scored 10 points or more.

McConnell is a classic point guard who can score and distribute, and does a good job of probing and getting inside. He has also scored in double figures eight times this postseason - 11, 15, 18, 12, 13, 10, 10, and 12. Toppin is an outstanding athlete who rebounds well, can hit from outside and is a danger in transition. In the Game 6 clincher over the Knicks, he scored 18 points and had 6 rebounds.

The Pacers are here and they belong. And they will play at a high in this series. Carlisle said after the Eastern Conference Finals, “In 49 states, it’s just basketball. But this is Indiana.” This appearance something to the organization and to the state.

In a lot of ways, these teams mirror each other. Great point guards, good forwards, good bigs, and quality benches. Both teams play up and down. Haliburton and Gilgeous-Alexander is the star matchup. Expect Dort to spend a lot of time guarding Haliburton. Siakam has a lot of potential to be an X-factor in this series. His championship experience and ability to slash and score will keep Holmgren off balance, and he is too rangy for the Thunder’s other premier perimeter defenders. He presents a 180 from what the Timberwolves’ Julius Randle did, and his matchup with Holmgren is a fascinating one. Holmgren is a young, perimeter-oriented, forward-center hybrid who can shoot threes and go off the dribble, is a consistent lob threat, and rim protector. The other is a veteran player who is a great slasher and transition scorer who can finish inside. Siakam can get up and down better than Holmgren and will give him some issues. On the flip side, Holmgren’s own length and range presents an issue for the Pacers. Aaron Nesmith, who primarily guarded the Knicks’ Jalen Brunson in the Conference Finals, will guard Gilgeous-Alexander frequently. Andrew Nembhard at Indiana’s two spot is like Lu Dort-lite - not as big, not as great of a defender but still a very strong defender who is more offensively-inclined than his Thunder counterpart.

The Thunder have one of their biggest advantages on the glass, where they are one of the best rebounding teams while the Pacers are one of the weakest. Isaiah Hartenstein is a great athlete who can finish inside, rebound, block shots, and has a patented push shot that he frequently goes to. Turner is a long center who likes to shoot from the outside and can block shots but does not rebound at a high level. The advantage there is to Oklahoma City. Turner needs to attack.

Both teams turn you over. Both teams run. Both teams have true leaders at point guard. Both teams have defensive wings. As said above, if one team looked in the mirror, they would see the other’s reflection. 

Scoping out both teams, the Thunder have just a little bit more. More defenders. More guys that play both ends. More size. This will be a better series than people think. These are the two best teams in the NBA. The Pacers are underdogs and that is nothing new to them. They are young and they are fearless, too.

A little more shooting. A little more defense. A little more depth. Advantage Oklahoma City. Thunder in 6. 

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