2025 NBA Playoffs 1st Round Preview

The 2025 NBA playoffs begin on Saturday with a quadruple slate of Game 1s, starting with the Indiana Pacers hosting the Milwaukee Bucks, followed by the Los Angeles Clippers visiting the Denver Nuggets, the New York Knicks playing host to the Detroit Pistons, and the Los Angeles Lakers hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves in the primetime, 8:30 p.m. slot. Here are the match-ups followed by first-round predictions.

Eastern Conference Seeding

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (8) Miami Heat (season series 2-1 CLE)

(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Orlando Magic (season series 2-1 ORL)

(3) New York Knicks vs. (6) Detroit Pistons (season series 3-1 DET)

(4) Indiana Pacers vs. (5) Milwaukee Bucks (season series 3-1 MIL)

Western Conference Seeding

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies (season series 4-0 MEM)

(2) Golden State Warriors vs. (7) Houston Rockets (season series 3-2 GSW)

(3) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Minnesota Timberwolves (season series 2-2)

(4) Denver Nuggets vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers (season series 2-2)

Predictions

EASTERN CONFERENCE

CLE vs. MIA

The Cavaliers, winners of 64 regular season games, sputtered over the last few weeks of the regular season, losing four consecutive games from March 16-March 21 and losing three of their last five games. Still, they finished the regular season best in the league in points per game (121.9) and offensive rating (121.0), while second in field-goal percentage (49.1), 3-point percentage (38.3), and 3-pointers made (15.9). The Cavaliers also finished third in opponent field-goal percentage (45.4), fourth in 3-pointers attempted (41.5), and fifth in rebounding (45.4) and defensive rebounding (34.2). In defensive rating, the Cavaliers ranked 8th (111.8) and were 10th in free-throws made at an even 17 per game. 

The Cavaliers face the Heat, who they took two of three from in the regular season, and whose fan base has long-standing friction with the other going back 15 years for reasons that we all know very well.

The Heat, just 37-45 in the regular season, earned a post-season berth by virtue of their 123-114 overtime win on Friday in Atlanta. Tyler Herro, who scored 38 points against the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday and 30 against the Hawks on Friday, will need to perform in a big way against the Cavaliers, who boast fellow all-star Donovan Mitchell and forward De’Andre Hunter, a trade deadline pickup from Atlanta who is a capable offensive player and solid defender. 

Miami (112.4) ranked 20th in the regular season in offensive rating, and ninth in defensive rating (112.0) just behind the Cavaliers, who finished eighth at 111.8. 

The major juxtaposition is the Heat’s slow-going offense (110.6, 25th), which is 12th in field-goal percentage (46.5). The Heat are 10th in 3-point percentage (36.7%), a weapon they will look to utilize with the likes of Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Andrew Wiggins. Davion Mitchell can also hit from deep too (16 points on 4-for-9 in Friday’s playoff-clinching win in Atlanta). With their 23rd ranking in rebounding (43.4) it will also be crucial for the Heat to keep Evan Mobley (9.3 rebounds) and Jarrett Allen (9.7 rebounds) off the boards 

The Heat do possess all-star Bam Adebayo (9.6 rebounds) and impressive rookie Kel’el Ware (7.4 rebounds in 22.2 minutes during the regular season), which makes for an exciting match-up between the Heat’s bigs and the Cavaliers’ Mobley and Allen.

Donovan Mitchell (24.0 points, 5.0 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 44%) is in position for the first time in his career as the leader on a team considered one of, if not the entire league’s, best. Ty Jerome (12.5 points, 52%) off the bench is the Cavaliers’ spark. Mitchell will have to give him some resistance.  

The Cavaliers won 64 games for a reason though, and the Heat will need everyone at their best, including Andrew Wiggins, to keep the series competitive. Wiggins will be vital in defending the Cavs' Mitchell. Cavaliers in 6.    

BOS vs. ORL

While the Celtics (61-21) ranked second in the NBA in both opponent points (107.2) and offensive rating (119.5) and fourth in defensive rating (110.1), they were second in opponent field-goal percentage at 45%, and of course the league’s top team in both 3-pointers made (17.8) and attempted (48.2). The Magic were 28th in points per game (105.4), and 27th in field-goal percentage (44.5), while last in 3-point percentage at 31.8, but first in opponent points, giving up 105.5 per game. The team is at opposite ends when it comes to defense and offense - second in defensive rating at 109.1 but 27th in offensive rating (108.9). The Magic did take two out of three from the Celtics in the regular season, but in April 9th’s 96-76 victory, the Celtics played their second unit. Still, the Magic should put up their best effort defensively. However, their defense being good enough against a team that blitzes nearly every team that they face with scoring barrages while also being a team that has defense and shot-making at every position on the floor, is another thing entirely.  

Jayson Tatum led the Celtics in scoring at 26.8 points per game (8.7 rebounds, 6.0 assists, also tops on the team), while Jaylen Brown averaged 22.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. The pair will match up with the Magic's Paolo Banchero (25.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists) and Franz Wagner (24.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists), which will be a provide a battle of the two of the league's best scoring forward tandems. Banchero, like Tatum, rebounds at a high clip for a guard and Wagner has a lot of offensive tools to his game. The Magic duo will give Tatum and Brown a challenge.

The deciding factor in this series, as it is with pretty much every team that matches up with the Celtics, is their two-way ability and shot-making. Derrick White and Jrue Holiday both score and defend, and are a difficult match-up for Cory Joseph and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. While Anthony Black (16, 20, and 21 points in his last three games) and Cole Anthony (26 points in the Magic's play-in win over Atlanta) are offensive spark plugs, turbo charge both and end up with Payton Pritchard (14.3 points, 47%), who had 24 games of 20+ points this season, including a 43-point eruption on March 5 against the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Magic, a tough defensive team, will put up an admirable fight against the Celtics, but the defending champions' versatility and completeness as a team will be too much. Banchero missed nearly two and a half months due to injury, and if he had not, the Magic would surely have finished with better than a 41-41 record. They are better than their record indicated. But not having Jalen Suggs hurts. Celtics in 6.

NYK vs. DET

The Pistons took three out of four from the Knicks during the regular season, with all-star Knick forward Karl-Anthony Towns not playing in one of the defeats. Towns (24.4 points, 12.8 rebounds) put up 21 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists in the Knicks' 128-98 win in Detroit on November 1, with Jalen Brunson adding 26. Brunson averaged 26.0 points and 7.3 assists in the regular season, and his match-up with Cade Cunningham (26.1 points, 9.1 assists, 6.1 rebounds) is the one to watch in the series.

The Knicks averaged 115.8 points during the regular season (9th) and were also ninth in opponent points at 111.7. Their 117.3 offensive rating was fifth, while they were also in the top 10 in field-goal percentage (46.8, 4th), 3-point percentage (36.9, 8th) and free-throw percentage (80.0, 5th).

The Pistons, meanwhile, averaged 115.5 points, and were 10th in defensive rating (112.5). They were the ninth-best rebounding team in the league (44.8), and eight in both field-goal percentage (47.6) and opponent field-goal percentage (46.1). Eighteenth in 3-point percentage (36.2), they shoot 35.4 per game (9th). They do get to the line, eighth in both makes (17.2) and attempts (22.3) but make just 77.4% as a team.

J.B. Bickerstaff has done an outstanding job with the Pistons, turning them around from 14 wins last season to 44 in his first season. Cunningham has taken a leap to borderline superstardom, and Tim Hardaway, Tobias Harris, and Malik Beasley are all proficient long range shooters, while Jalen Duren at 21 years old averages 10.3 rebounds. Ron Holland when given opportunities can score, and Dennis Schroder is a nice veteran guard to have off the bench. Ausar Thompson is additional youth for the Pistons as well.

This will be one of the best series' of the first round, the Pistons' first playoff appearance since 2018-19. Still, the star power of Brunson and Towns overtakes Cunningham. Knicks in 6.

IND vs. MIL

Having home-court advantage is big for the Pacers, who lost three of four to the Bucks in the regular season. It is also doubly important because Damian Lillard was recently cleared from his deep vein thrombosis and will resume on-court activities, out for Game 1 but possibly returning later in the series. It will be vital that the Pacers get a jump on the Bucks.

The Pacers ranked in the top 10 in points (117.4, 7th), offensive rating (115.4, 9th), field-goal percentage (48.8, 3rd), 3-point percentage (36.8, 9th), and 10th in free-throws made (17.0) and ninth in free-throw percentage (78.9, 9th).

The Bucks were 11th in scoring (115.5) and 12th in opponent points (113.0) whereas Indiana's 115.1 allowed was 16th. Milwaukee's offensive rating of 115.1 was 10th league-wide, and though they finished 23rd in rebounding (43.4), they were second in defensive rebounds at 35.1, in no small part due to Giannis Antetokoumpo's 11.9 rebounds per game (30.4 points and 6.5 assists as well). The Bucks also finished in the top 10 in five offensive categories - field-goal percentage (48.6, 4th), 3-point percentage (38.7, 1st), 3-pointers made (14.2, 7th), and free-throws made (17.3, 7th) and attempted (23.1, 3rd).

Antetokounmpo's ability to get to the free-throw line and slow the game down will bode well for the Bucks, as will his transition scoring - Antetokounmpo finished second during the regular season in fast-break points (4.9). It will be interesting to see the strategy that Rick Carlisle employs for his team. Pascal Siakam was part of 2019 Toronto Raptor title team that helped to slow Antetokoumpo by building a wall, and with Siakam and center Myles Turner, the Pacers could employ a similar strategy.

Without Lillard down the stretch of the regular season, the Bucks won eight consecutive games (April 1-April 13) after losing four in a row. Over the last 10 games, Antetokounmpo scored 30, 31, 37, 35, 36, 23, 28, 32, and 43 points.

This will be a highly competitive series between division rivals. If Lillard can return later in the series, it will obviously heighten the Bucks' chances of avenging 2024's 4-2 first round loss. In one of the best series' of the opening round, Antetokounpo gets his revenge. Bucks in 6.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

OKC vs. MEM

The NBA’s top team record-wise at 68-14, the Oklahoma City Thunder won the Western Conference by 16 games behind MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who led the league in scoring (32.7 points, 52%) while contributing 6.4 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.7 steals, which was the third highest average in the Association. 

The Thunder possess a slew of wing defenders, with not just Gilgeous-Alexander but All-NBA caliber defenders Lu Dort and Alex Caruso as well as Cason Wallace, who averaged 1.8 steals per game in the regular season. 

Jalen Williams blossomed into one of the game’s top forwards, averaging 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.1 assists on 48% shooting. Chet Holmgren is a match-up problem with length, shooting ability and defensive capabilities, and Isaiah Hartenstein (10.7 rebounds per game) is also an intimidating shot-blocking presence. Hartenstein filled the roster’s one weakness. Isaiah Joe is also a sniper off the bench.

The Thunder finished the regular season top 10 in 12 categories, leading the NBA in defensive rating (106.6), opponent field-goal percentage (43.6), and free-throw percentage (81.9). They were third in offensive rating (119.2) and opponent points per game (107.6) while their point per game average of 120.5 was fourth. The team finished fifth in defensive rebounds (34.2), and field-goal percentage (48.2), while sixth in 3-point percentage (37.4) and threes made (14.5), and was 10th in 3-pointers attempted (38.8). 

The Grizzlies, in winning their play-in game against the Dallas Mavericks, overcame Anthony Davis’ 40 points with a balanced effort as six finished in double-figures led by Jaren Jackson Jr.’s 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists (10-for-18, 4-for-5 from deep). Desmond Bane finished with 22 points and Ja Morant, who received ankle injections prior to the game, scored 22 points with 9 assists and 7 rebounds. Though just 7-for-24 shooting, he did make all seven of his free-throw attempts. 

During the regular season, Memphis was second in the Association in points per game at 121.7, while shooting it at a decent clip, 47.9%, which was the sixth-best in the league. They finished 10th in 3-point percentage (36.7), while just outside the top 10 in free-throw percentage at 78.6%. 

The Grizzlies were the NBA’s second best rebounding team at 47.3, which bodes well for them in a series against an Oklahoma City team that averaged 44.8 during the regular season. Jaren Jackson Jr., Santi Aldama and Zach Edey can match-up at least in terms of height with the Thunder, though Edey’s effectiveness may be rendered negative with Holmgren and Hartenstein countering. Memphis was also fourth in opponent field-goal percentage (45.6), and their defense will have to be at their best if they are to unseat the Thunder, a team that took all four regular season contests from them.

Morant matching up with Gilgeous-Alexander is a star duel, but Dort will be a hindrance for Bane. Scotty Pippen Jr. is a player in the mold of his father, but outside of him and Aldama, the bench is thin. The Thunder will be too much. Thunder is 5.    

GSW vs. HOU

The Rockets were the best rebounding team in the NBA (48.5 per game, 14.6 offensive) during the regular season, and also finished sixth in opponent field-goal percentage (45.9), 6th in opponent points per game (109.8) and 5th in defensive rating (110.3). Golden State in contrast finished eighth in points allowed (110.5), 11th in opponent field-goal percentage (46.5), fifth in rebounding (45.4) and seventh in defensive rating (111.0).

From long distance is where both teams differ greatly - the Warriors third in 3-pointers made (15.4) and second in threes attempted (42.4) while the Rockets were 24th in threes made (12.7 per game) and 21st in threes attempted (35.8). They were fifth in free-throws attempted (22.6) and while last in percentage (73.8), Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and Jabari Smith Jr. all shoot above 80 from the stripe - VanVleet 81.0, Green 81.3, Brooks 81.8, and Smith Jr. 82.5.

There are some compelling match-ups with Dillon Brooks against Jimmy Butler and Alperen Sengun, one of the top post players in the league who averages 10.3 rebounds, against the experience of Draymond Green. Amen Thompson is one of the league’s best wing defenders and will look to give Curry and the other Warriors issues. Tari Eason can also defend as well.

The grit that the Warriors may have lacked was spiked by the acquisition of Jimmy Butler, who gives them a different element of toughness and a player who can do so many things. He and Brooks will be a fascinating match-up because both guys are ultra competitive and love to defend. VanVleet, who played Stephen Curry well in the 2019 NBA Finals (Curry while averaging 30.5 points did shoot just 41%), will need to give similar effort. The Rockets can also play Amen Thompson heavily on Curry, and Brooks at times as well to make him work.

The Rockets were 2-3 during the regular season against the Warriors, with two of the losses decided by seven points, and six points, the latter in a 127-121 overtime affair on November 7. 

Jalen Green (21.0 points in the regular season) is going to have to play at an all-star level for the Rockets to move on to the second round. Rockets in 7.

LAL vs. MIN

The Lakers are a different team with Luka Doncic, 27-19 at the time of dealing for him and 23-13 since. With both LeBron James and Doncic, the Lakers got to the line just about as well as any team in the regular season, second in makes (18.2) and attempts (23.2). They also ranked in the top 10 in field-goal percentage (47.9, 6th) and opponent field-goal percentage (46.3, 9th) and are 10th in opponent points (112.2).

The Timberwolves ranked in the top 10 in nine different categories - offensive rating (115.7, 8th), defensive rating (110.8, 6th), opponent field-goal percentage (46.0, 7th), 3-point percentage (37.7, 4th), makes (15.0, 4th), and attempts (39.9, 5th), free-throws made (17.2, 8th), and free-throw percentage (78.9, 9th). The other category that they finished top 10 in was opponent points per game (109.3, 5th). Obviously, that last statistic will be tested against a Laker lineup where both Doncic (28.2) and James (24.4) put up high quality numbers. Austin Reaves (20.2 points per game during the regular season) has truly emerged as a legitimate third piece and a fringe all-star. Dorian Finney-Smith and Jarred Vanderbilt will be employed on Anthony Edwards (27.6 points, 44.7%), who took a leap with his 3-point shooting this season. Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker can all get after it defensively and will be crucial in attempting to slow the Lakers' attack. Naz Reid off the bench is one of the best stretch guys in the NBA and is an issue for any defense. A key to this series is Julius Randle (18.7 points, 7.1 rebounds) who will need to be Edwards' right hand to compete with James and Doncic. Randle will need to play at an all-star level. Rudy Gobert will need to protect the paint, too. A great, entertaining series on the horizon as the Wolves look to avenge their 4-1 Western Conference Finals defeat at the hands of Doncic, who averaged 32.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 8.2 assists in that series last spring. The Lakers just might have too much. Lakers in 7.

DEN vs. LAC

This has the makings of the best first-round series, the Clippers one of the hottest teams in the NBA (eight consecutive victories since March 31) and the Nuggets housing the game's best player in Nikola Jokic.

After three consecutive losses from February 20-24, the Clippers went on to go 19-6 to close the season. In their final regular season game on April 13 in which they had to win in order to escape the Play-In, the Clippers won 124-119 in San Francisco against the Warriors, with James Harden scoring 39 points, 10 assists, and 7 rebounds and Kawhi Leonard scoring 33 points.

The Clippers are in the top 10 in eight categories - opponent points per game (108.2, 4th), defensive rating (109.4, 3rd), defensive rebounds (33.5, 9th), field-goal percentage (48.2, 5th), opponent field-goal percentage (46.1, 8th), 3-point percentage (37.3, 7th), free-throws made (17.3, 7th), and free-throw percentage (79.7, 7th). Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell, Kris Dunn, Ben Simmons, and Derrick Jones Jr. can make things difficult on Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.

Guard Christian Braun had had a career year (15.4 points) for the Nuggets, and gives them additional punch. The Nuggets are also in the top 10 in eight categories - points per game (120.8, 3rd), offensive rating (118.9, 4th), rebounding (45.7, 4th), defensive rebounds (34.5, 3rd), field-goal percentage (50.6, 1st), 3-point percentage (37.6, 5th), free-throws made (17.9, 4th), and free-throws attempted (23.3, 1st).

Ivica Zubac finished the regular season with 12.6 rebounds per game, just behind Jokic's 12.7 rebounds. Jokic's 6.4 free-throw attempts per game were the seventh-most in the league, and it will be a point for him to get to the line and get Zubac in foul trouble with the Clippers being thin up front. Harden (7.3 attempts per game) can also slow the game down for his team.

The nucleus of Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr., and Gordon has championship experience and camaraderie, and Russell Westbrook could be a major x-factor if he plays to his capabilities, but Leonard when healthy is one of the best players in the NBA and if Harden plays at a high level, it will be trouble for the Nuggets. Clippers in 7.