Dallas Cowboys Game Preview: Thanksgiving vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Cover photo: Dallas Cowboys’ quarterback Dak Prescott tries to make a play as Kansas Chiefs’ defensive end Frank Clark pursues him during a game on Nov. 21, 2021 at Arrowhead Stadium. Photo credit: Tom Fox, Dallas Morning News.

The Dallas Cowboys, 5-5-1, pulled off an improbable comeback win in Week 12 at home against the Philadelphia Eagles and will no doubt be riding that momentum into Thanksgiving’s affair against the 6-5 Kansas City Chiefs, who themselves are coming off of a comeback win. 

In defeating the Philadelphia Eagles in Arlington just a few days ago, the Cowboys came back from a 21-0 second quarter deficit. Dak Prescott finished 23/36 for 354 yards and two touchdowns with one interception as the offense overcame a slow offensive start. George Pickens had an exceptional game against the Eagles with nine catches for 146 yards and a touchdown. 

The Chiefs are also riding high with momentum as they scored 14 points unanswered between the fourth quarter and overtime to defeat the Indianapolis Colts, who were 8-2 going into Sunday’s game. Patrick Mahomes did not throw a touchdown but completed 29/46 passes for 352 yards. Rashee Rice, who will be the primary Mahomes wide receiver target on Thursday, caught eight passes for 141 yards against the Colts. Xavier Worthy, who caught four passes for 59 yards, has speed that will be an issue for the Cowboys’ secondary. Eagles’ receiver A.J. Brown dominated with eight catches for 110 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys, and the Chiefs with their weapons including Travis Kelce and the speed that they have in addition to the super talent of Mahomes will surely provide the toughest test of the Cowboys’ season on the defensive side of the ball. 

One positive for the Cowboys is that Chiefs’ offensive guard Trey Smith will miss the game. This will open up the door for continued success for new acquisition Quinnen Williams and fellow defensive tackle Kenny Clark. Kareem Hunt ran for 104 yards against the Colts, but the Cowboys in the last two weeks have limited Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) and Saquon Barkley (Eagles) to six carries for 7 yards and 10 carries for 22 yards. On a positive note for the Chiefs, Isiah Pacheco returns after nearly a one month absence (he last played on Oct. 27) due to a knee injury. 

Since Williams’ acquisition, the Cowboys have allowed just 90 yards and 3.0 yards per carry. Williams leads the entire NFL in quarterback pressures in the last two weeks, and the defensive group as a whole is third in the NFL in pressure rate. 

On the offensive side, Prescott is currently third in the NFL in yards - his 2,941 are behind Mahomes’ 2,977 and Drake Maye’s 3,130 - second in touchdowns (23 to Matthew Stafford’s 30) and has an NFL-best 276 completions, 14 ahead of the second-place Mahomes (262). Prescott has 23 touchdowns to seven interceptions, while Mahomes has 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions thus far. Kelce, with 674 yards, leads the Chiefs in receiving yards, while Rice has totaled 394 catches in his five games played, and is only one touchdown off of Kelce’s team lead. 

While CeeDee Lamb has struggled with drops in recent weeks, Pickens has developed a trusting rapport with Prescott. To this point, the duo has the highest passer rating across the league between a quarterback and receiver, with 134.4. Pickens on the season has 67 receptions for 1,054 yards and eight touchdowns. His 1,054 yards are second only to the Seattle Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 1,313. 

If the Cowboys’ secondary can limit the Chiefs’ big play opportunities down the field, particularly with Rice, Kelce, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown, their offense should be able to keep pace with the explosive Chiefs. Pressuring Mahomes will be crucial in getting the superstar off of his spot and making him uncomfortable. The Chiefs are fifth in the NFL in yards per game at 376.0, and are second in passing offense (257.7), only to the Cowboys’ 266.8. The Chiefs’ defense is fifth in the league in yards allowed at 293.0, while the Cowboys, though improved since acquiring Williams, rank 29th still at 377.5, which is much better than their numbers earlier in the season which were well into the 400s. The Chief defense is fourth in points allowed per game at 18.3, while the Cowboys are next to last at 28.5. The Chiefs are eighth against the run, 97.6 per game, while the Cowboys average the 11th-most on the ground at 120.5 yards per game. 

While Smith is out for the Chiefs on Thursday due to an ankle injury, the only player out as of now for the Cowboys is left tackle Tyler Guyton with an ankle injury. Cornerback Caelen Carson is questionable with a hamstring.

The Cowboys lead the all-time series (7-5) against a franchise that is also one of the most storied in NFL history. While the Cowboys won three Super Bowls in the 1970s, the Chiefs, who came over from the AFL, appeared in Super Bowl I (35-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers) and won Super Bowl IV by a 23-7 score over the Minnesota Vikings. In the two teams’ last meeting on Nov. 21, 2021, the Chiefs prevailed 19-9 at Arrowhead Stadium. The Cowboys won the previous matchup on Nov. 5, 2017 by a 28-17 score, while the Chiefs emerged victorious 17-16 in Kansas City on Sept. 15, 2013. On Oct. 11, 2009 in Kansas City, Miles Austin had his career day, catching 10 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns from Tony Romo. 

On this 2025 Thanksgiving, both teams possess offenses that have dynamite in their hands. It will be a question of whether the Cowboys can pressure Mahomes and make him uncomfortable. If they are unable to, it might be a long day in Arlington. 

Prediction: Chiefs 30 Cowboys 27