Dallas Cowboys Week 16 Preview: Home vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Cover photo: Dallas Cowboys' quarterback Dak Prescott runs the ball with the Los Angeles Chargers' Khalil Mack in pursuit at SoFi Stadium on Oct. 16, 2023.

Three weeks ago, the Dallas Cowboys were 6-5-1, winners of three consecutive games and one of the hottest teams in football. A trade deadline deal for New York Jets’ all-world defensive tackle and the otherworldly play of wide receiver George Pickens had the team in somewhat of a driver’s seat - if they kept on winning, they’d give themselves a shot at the playoffs. 

But since, the Cowboys have dropped two in a row in disappointing fashion. In Week 14 in a Thursday nighter in the Motor City, they gave up 44 points to the Detroit Lions in a fourteen-point loss. Back at home on Sunday Night Football just six days ago, the team lost 34-26 to the Minnesota Vikings, who were 5-8 going in. 

The offense has not played well, settling for field-goals at the Lions when they needed touchdowns, and missing opportunities against the Vikings, including two mystifying field-goal blunders from all-world kicker Brandon Aubrey. Questionable red zone play calling had kept the offense out of the end zone when they needed scores. The defense had reverted back to its pre-deadline ways. 

With a measly one percent chance at the postseason, the Cowboys could know their fate by Saturday night - the Philadelphia Eagles play the Washington Commanders at 5:00 p.m. eastern time on Sunday, and if the Eagles win, the Cowboys are officially eliminated. The Eagles play the Commanders twice and the Buffalo Bills the rest of the way. Unlikely that the Cowboys’ rival loses all three, which is what the Cowboys need, along with winning all three of their remaining contests, to win the NFC East. 

To make things even more challenging, the Cowboys welcome the Los Angeles Chargers to Arlington on Sunday for an early noon central time kickoff. The Chargers, second in the AFC West at 10-4, have won three consecutive - Raiders, Eagles, and in Week 15 eliminated the Kansas City Chiefs from playoff contention. The Bills, second in the AFC West, are also 10-4. The Houston Texans, second in the AFC South, are 9-5. The Indianapolis Colts are right behind the Texans in the division at 8-6. In short, the Chargers are in a battle for a Wild Card spot. 

Quarterback Justin Herbert threw for 210 yards against the Chiefs in Week 15, running back Omarion Hampton ran for 61 yards, and tight end Gadsden II - the son of the brief former Cowboy and former Miami Dolphin wideout - caught five balls for 61 yards against the Chiefs and had a four-game stretch earlier in the season of 68 yards, 164 yards, 77 yards, and 68 yards receiving. Hampton has averaged 4.6 yards per carry in his seven games played this season. Kimani Vidal, who took the reigns while Hampton was on injured reserve with an ankle fracture that forced him to miss seven games, has rushed for 4.2 yards per attempt. Leading the Charger receiving core is Ladd McConkey, one of the best wideouts in the NFL. The 24-year-old has been targeted 98 times by Herbert and has hauled in 61 offerings for 715 yards and five touchdowns. 

Linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu (12 sacks, 5th), Odafe Oweh (7 sacks in 9 games ), and Khalil Mack (5.5 sacks in 10 games) are a straight-up problem for a Cowboys’ offensive line that is incredibly vulnerable on the outside with less than stellar right tackle Terence Steele and a backup left tackle in Nate Thomas, who though he has shown improvement, got dinged up against the Vikings. Hakeem Adeniji was his replacement in that game and it was ugly. The Cowboys allowed two sacks against the Vikings, but the outside lack of protection forced Prescott into hurried throws and scrambles. 

Prescott is second in the NFL in passing yards, with 3,931. Running back Javonte Williams is sixth in rushing yards, with 1,113. Pickens’ 1,212 receiving yards are still third despite just 37 and 33 yards in the last two weeks. He has caught 81 passes. CeeDee Lamb, in 11 games, has caught 63 balls for 976 yards and three scores. In the last three weeks, he has tallied 112, 121, and 111 yards. Emerging third wideout Ryan Flournoy was targeted 13 times against the Lions, catching nine for 115 yards and a score. He caught five for 40 yards against the Vikings. Tight end Jake Ferguson has 77 catches for 540 yards and seven touchdowns. 

The Cowboys’ No. 1 offense (396.9 yards per game, 276.1 passing yards per game) faces a stout Charger D that yields an average of 279.1 yards per game, tied for the second-best in the league along with the Cleveland Browns. The Chargers’ 174.4 yards given up through the air is third, while they are ninth against the run (104.7). They allow the eighth-most points (20.3). The Cowboys score 29.1 points per game. 

Offensively, the Chargers gain 337.9 yards, 15th. They are 19th through the air (214.5), and 10th on the ground (123.4). The team averages 22.5 points per game. 

Defensively, the Cowboys give up 374.9 yards per game, 29th. They are the worst in defending the pass, allowing 254.8 yards. Their run defense allows 120.1, and their 30.0 points given up is 31st. Only the Cincinnati Bengals, at 31.2 points allowed, surrender more. 

The Chargers have a talented defense, with Mack and company leading the front and Derwin James patrolling the back end. Three Charger starters across the board - receiver Quentin Johnston (groin), defensive tackle Teair Tart (shin), and free safety Elijah Molden (hamstring) - have questionable injury designations for Sunday. 

For the Cowboys, cornerback DaRon Bland will undergo foot surgery for the second year in a row. Guyton remains out with an ankle, and cornerback Caelen Carson (hamstring) and fullback Hunter Luepke (concussion) are questionable. The biggest and most worrisome injury news is the questionable availability of Quinnen Williams, who suffered a concussion against the Vikings. If he cannot go, it makes things infinitely easier for Herbert and the Chargers’ offense. 

Big D is in desperation mode, but could know by kickoff that they are eliminated from playoff contention. A slow start to the season, and losses throughout the season that should not have been losses, have been their undoing. The Chargers, 4-2 on the road this season, are talented and playing for playoff positioning. 

The Cowboys lead the all-time series between the two clubs 8-5, and have won the last two meetings - both 20-17 results on Oct. 16, 2023 and Sept. 19, 2021, both in Los Angeles. On Nov. 23, 2017, the Chargers trounced the Cowboys 28-6 on Thanksgiving Day in Arlington. 

The Chargers are still playing for a playoff spot. The Cowboys have the slimmest of chances at the postseason and could know their fate by midnight tonight. If the Cowboys gave up 34 to the Vikings (6-8). The Chargers have the firepower to exceed that. 

Prediction: Chargers 37 Cowboys 24