The final two spots in the 2024 NBA Playoffs were secured last night, with the Miami Heat defeating the Chicago Bulls 112-91 and the New Orleans Pelicans defeating the Sacramento Kings 105-98. With those results, all eight opening round matchups are set.
Eastern Conference
1 Boston vs. 8 Miami
2 New York vs. 7 Philadelphia
3 Milwaukee vs. 6 Indiana
4 Cleveland vs. 5 Orlando
Western Conference
1 Oklahoma City vs. 8 New Orleans
2 Denver vs. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
3 Minnesota vs. 6 Phoenix
4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. 5 Dallas
Eastern Conference Matchups
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Strangely, this is the fourth time in five seasons (2020, 2022, 2023, 2024) that both the Celtics and Heat meet in the playoffs. All previous meetings were in the conference finals.
The Celtics, 64-18 in the regular season, have been considered the favorites to win their 18th championship all year long. Potent offense, great defense, and depth have been their calling card. They won all three regular season matchups against the Heat, including a 143-110 waxing on January 25. Jayson Tatum (26.9 points, 8.1 rebounds), led his team in scoring, and Kristaps Porzingis complemented Tatum and Jaylen Brown well with 20.1 points per game. The team also has one of the best backcourts with Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. White is not a big name but he does everything that you want and need in a role player.
The Heat, without Jimmy Butler, will miss his toughness and do-it-all mentality. They will continue to need big performances from Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez, both of whom came up big (Herro 24 points, Jaquez 21) in Friday’s play-in victory. Veteran forward Kevin Love, who had 16 points and 7 rebounds in just 12 minutes on Friday, could be an x-factor with his physicality, rebounding, and outside shooting, and Bam Adebayo will need to use to his quickness and outside touch to his advantage against Porzingis.
That all being said, the Heat, especially short handed, are just simply outmatched in this series. I would not count an Erik Spoelstra coached team out, but the Celtics should emerge rather easily. Celtics in 5.
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers defeated the Heat to secure the seventh seed, and will meet the Knicks in an old school contest of two of the league’s most storied franchises.
Both teams defend well, the Knicks second in points allowed and the 76ers ninth. Without Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson will get all the attention from Nick Nurse’s defense, which will force others to play big.
Donte DiVincenzo and Bojan Bogdanovic are both big shot makers, and Josh Hart is a do everything role player. He is also has a nose for the ball, evidenced by his 8.1 rebounds per game as a 6 foot, 4 inch guard. OG Anunoby is one of the league’s premier perimeter defenders, and will play a key role in slowing down Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris.
Joel Embiid figures to dominate inside, but the Knicks’ defense should be enough to secure them a second-round matchup. Knicks in 7.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
The Bucks limp into the playoffs, without their best player in Giannis Antetokounmpo. More of the pressure now falls on the other guys, first Damian Lillard and then Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez. The Bucks were just 17-19 under Doc Rivers after a 30-13 start with Adrian Griffin at the helm.
The Pacers have youth on their side, with 30-year-old Pascal Siakam the oldest of their starting five. Siakam, brought over in a trade with the Toronto Raptors, has brought the Pacers another playmaker who can create for himself, and a defender. Tyrese Haliburton enjoyed a career year, with 20.1 points and 10.9 assists on the season. The Pacers’ pace should bother the Bucks, and if Antetokounmpo does not play in the series, or for instance misses the first two games, the Pacers will be in prime position. Pacers in 6.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
This is an intriguing matchup with two of the league’s best brightest young teams. Jalen Suggs and Gary Harris provide a good contrast of defense and shooting the backcourt, and Franz Wagner (19.7 points on 48 percent) is a more than capable scorer. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland will need to match Paolo Banchero and Wagner in the scoring department. For the Cavs, Evan Mobley and Jarett Allen inside is a very potent defensive pairing, and Max Strus can shoot the ball. Caris Levert off the bench is a very capable scorer.
The Cavs had an up and down year, at one point going on a stretch where they won 17 of 18 games, but tailed off at the end going just 4-6 in their final 10 games.
The Magic have a future superstar in Banchero, who averaged 22.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.4 assists on 46 percent shooting this season. They also have a very capable in Jonathan Isaac, and good depth with Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, and Wendell Carter Jr. Veteran Joe Ingles gives them some shooting in the second unit as well. The Magic also were a top three seed in the conference at one point before sliding a little bit.
This should be a very competitive series that is flying under the radar because its lack of a big market team and players that the general public and casual fan has not seen much of. It does, however, have the potential to be one of the most competitive series’ of the opening round. Cavs in 7.
Western Conference Matchups
OKC Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
The Thunder have one of the youngest and best teams in the league, evidenced by their run to a top seed in a conference that is not short on star power. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an MVP candidate, maybe the favorite, and Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, and Chet Holmgren provide the perfect complements to him. Holmgren will be a very difficult matchup for the Pelicans, just as Anthony Davis was in the Play-In.
The impact of Zion Williamson’s unavailability for the Pelicans goes without saying. He had a dominant performance against the Lakers (40/11/5 on 17/27 shooting) before exiting the game with a hamstring that will keep him out at least two weeks. Zion is a do-it-all guy for the Pelicans, initiating offense, getting shooters open looks, and scoring inside. More of the pressure and responsibilities fall on CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram. The Pelicans, do, however, possess one of the league’s best perimeter defensive tandems in Jose Alvarado and Herb Jones, and Trey Murphy is more than capable from the outside. Larry Nance is a live body. As undermanned as they are sighing their star, the Pelicans could make this series competitive at times. Still, I wouldn’t expect them to win more than a game. Thunder in 5.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are 0-8 in their last eight matchups against the Nuggets, so they are due for at least one win in the series. The Nuggets’ chemistry is on another level than most teams, and Nikola Jokic seems to be too much for even the best of defenders (Anthony Davis).
One of the keys to the series will be if D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves can shoot well from the outside. Russell has been hot lately, and Reaves is a playmaker. Still, there are difficult matchups for the Lakers on the defensive side, with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., the latter at 6 foot, 10 inches, a tough defensive matchup for anyone. Aaron Gordon does a little bit of everything, and his activity will need to be curtailed a bit by the Lakers. While not as deep as last season, the Nuggets figure to be too much for their opposition, though the Lakers should be able to win a game this time around. Nuggets in 6.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns
The Timberwolves possess the league’s best defense, but the Suns have the firepower. Aside from the usual suspects in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal, Grayson Allen has turned into a very capable “3 and D” type player. The Suns defeated the Timberwolves 125-106 in the last game of the season, and Beal caught fire with 36 points. If he can put up that type of efficiency and effectiveness (14/21, 6/6 from three-point range), the Suns will be very difficult to beat.
The Timberwolves not only have star power (Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns), but they are deep. Naz Reid is one of the best bench players in the NBA, Kyle Anderson does a lot of things well and starting small forward Jaden McDaniels is a very good defender. They have an interior advantage with Towns, Reid, and Gobert, but the Suns have the edge on the wings. Frank Vogel has hinted at playing Kevin Durant at center at different points, which would extend Gobert out on the perimeter and take away his shot-blocking opportunities at the rim. This should be a very competitive series. Minnesota could very well win, but at the end of the day the Suns have too much offensive firepower. Suns in 6.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
This very well could be the best series of the opening round. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving against James Harden and Paul George (hopefully Kawhi Leonard can play, he is the Clippers’ best player). The teams met in back-to-back first round series’, in 2020 and 2021. The Clippers won in six games in 2020, and seven in 2021.
This time, though, might be different. Doncic and Irving together is scary for any defense, even a pairing as good as Leonard and George. The Dallas backcourt mates might be the two best isolation scorers in the game. The Mavericks also improved their interior with a February trade for Daniel Gafford, who gives them a shot-blocking presence in the paint. If Leonard is unable to go, the Clippers will need big time production from Russell Westbrook, who, when playoff time rolls around, brings it. Last season, with Leonard out in the Clippers’ first round series against the Suns, he scored 28, 30, and 37 in consecutive games. This is a tough series to call that could go either way. Mavericks in 7.
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