Thursday at 9:00pm eastern, a couple of firsts will happen.
For the first time in their championship run, the Golden State Warriors will begin the NBA Finals on the road, without home court advantage. And, for the first time in NBA history, the NBA Finals will be played in Canada. The Warriors, winners of 57 games and the top seed in the western conference, are looking to three peat, in what would be their fourth championship in five years. The Raptors, the new kids on the block in the Finals, are looking to win for an entire country.
For the Warriors, winning would mean solidifying their dominance over this current era of NBA basketball. For the Raptors, it would erase all of the years of mediocrity, and would prove the Kawhi Leonard trade - if it hasn't proved it already - as the ultimate in gutsy, risk taking, and rewarding personnel decisions.
So, how will things shake out? Let's break down the teams first:
Warriors: 57-25 (1st in West), 30-11 home record, 27-14 road, 117.7 points per game (1st), 111.2 points per game allowed (14th). Won first round 4-2 vs LAC, won second round 4-2 vs HOU, won conference finals 4-0 vs POR
Raptors: 58-24 (2nd in East), 32-9 home record, 26-15 road, 114.4 points per game (8th), 108.4 points per game allowed (9th). Won first round 4-1 vs ORL, won second round 4-3 vs PHI, won conference finals 4-2 vs MIL
The Warriors have been dominant as of late, with a convincing sweep of the Trail Blazers. Steph Curry, carrying the load since Kevin Durant's calf injury, has been nothing short of spectacular. He is averaging 35.8 points per game over the last five, on 47% from the field and 42% from three point range. Draymond Green has also been great, notching back to back triple doubles in games 3 and 4 of the west finals.
On the flip side, the Raptors are also hot coming into the Finals, having won four straight to close out the Bucks in the east finals, after most observers had written them off after games 1 and 2. The story of not just the Raptors post season but the NBA postseason has been the outstanding play of Kawhi Leonard, who has asserted himself as a dominant force on both ends, carrying the Raptor load offensively while being the primary reason that Giannis Antetokounmpo, the presumptive league MVP, struggled in the conference finals. Coming into these Finals, Leonard is averaging 31.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists (including 9 and 7 in the last two Toronto wins), and 1.6 steals while shooting 51% from the field, 39% from three, and 88% from the charity stripe.
A good sign for the Raptors is the emergence of their role players lately, particularly Fred Van Vleet. VanVleet, maligned early in the playoffs, is averaging 16 points over the last three, is 17 for 25 over that span, and is 14 for 17 from three. Pascal Siakam has also come on strong, with double doubles in two of the last four games, including posting 25 points and 11 rebounds in the big double overtime win in game 3.
If the Raptors are going to win this series though, they will need an offensive contribution from Danny Green. Green was part of that championship mettle that was brought over in the offseason - brought in for his defense and shot making. While the defense has been there, his offense has not. Since going 5 for 7 from three in game 5 vs Philadelphia, the veteran is 6 for 32 from beyond the arc, including 0 for 9 over the last three games. His minutes have been limited in favor of Normal Powell, who provides Nick Nurse with more athleticism off the bench while still being able to knock down shots, but it will be of the utmost importance in this series to have Green break from his slump. Not only for his confidence, but the Raptors will need all hands on deck if they are to win this series.
With Kevin Durant's calf injury still lingering - he will miss game 1 - and Boogie Cousins questionable for game 1, the Raptors could steal the series opener. They will be at home, have tons of momentum, and the Warriors could prove rusty after a nine day layoff. Cousins presents a similar problem as Brook Lopez did in the last series, as he has the ability to stretch the floor. The difference is that Cousins is much more light on his feet, and can work out of the post. If Cousins does go, he and Marc Gasol is a good matchup to watch down low. Similar to the 76ers series, Gasol could use his defensive fundamentals to force Cousins into tough shots. The thing is, though, with this Warriors team and their wide open style, Cousins could prove to be an issue from three point range.
Kawhi Leonard will most likely matchup with multiple Warriors on defense - we will most likely see him guarding Curry and times, Klay Thompson at times, and Andre Iguodala. He has the length to bother both of the Warriors' guards, and limit Curry's ability to see the floor. Another luxury the Raptors have that not many, if any, teams in the league have, is the athletes to be able to guard on the perimeter. Along with Leonard, Pascal Siakam and Serge Ibaka are very good defenders, who would be able to get out and guard the Warriors, if need be, on switches, and also have the ability to help and recover. This length can also translate to offense, where Siakam and Ibaka could be difficult covers for Draymond Green. The Raptors defense, if at the level it was against Milwaukee, will prove tough for the Warriors to navigate. The difference, though, between Milwaukee and Golden State, is that the Warriors are a completely different level of firepower. It will need to be all hands on deck for the Raptors if they are to win.
Without Durant, the Warriors still are explosive, as proven by their sweep of Portland. They have two of the greatest shooters in history, with an all purpose player in Green who can do it all. I think that Leonard will have a great series, and the others will need to continue to play well. Kyle Lowry's physicality and toughness will be vital, as the Raptors could post him up some to get Curry in foul trouble. He can make shots, and is a tough defender.
The Raptors, defensively, remind me a little bit of the old Memphis Grizzly teams that Marc Gasol once anchored. They are tough and gritty and athletic, with more offense. I believe that they can make things very difficult for the Warriors, even if Durant plays the majority of the series. After all, we remember what Kawhi Leonard was doing to them before his ankle injury in Game 1 of the 2017 western conference finals. With Cousins though added to the mix, i feel that this incarnation of the Warriors has too much for not just the Raptors, but any team, to handle. Though i would not put anything past the greatness of Kawhi Leonard, and do feel that the Raptors have a shot, the Warriors end up being too much.
Prediction: Warriors in 6
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