The second round series between the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets (the second seed in the Western Conference at 57-25) and the third seed Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26) begins tonight at 7 p.m. from Ball Arena in Denver, CO.
In the first round, the Nuggets defeated the Los Angeles Lakers in five games, while the Timberwolves swiftly disposed of the Phoenix Suns in a four game sweep. Last season, both the Nuggets and Timberwolves met in the opening round, with the eventual champion Nuggets emerging in five games.
In the 2023-2024 regular season, the sides split four meetings, with the Timberwolves prevailing 110-89 and 111-98, while the Nuggets’ victories were by scores of 115-112 and 116-107. Anthony Edwards led both teams in scoring in all games and averaged 26 points per game against the Nuggets.
The Wolves boasted the league’s top defense during the regular season, allowing 106.5 points per game and holding opponents to 45 percent shooting. They were also the fifth-best defensive rebounding team in the league, at 34.2, which will be important against an active Nugget group that likes to get second chance opportunities. Both sides rebound the ball well, the Nuggets 44.4 and Timberwolves 43.6.
In his previous five meetings against three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, two-time League Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokic has put up the following, per StatMuse:
24 points, 9 assists, 7 rebounds
20 points, 16 assists, 12 rebounds
25 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists
32 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists
41 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists
In those meetings, Jokic shot an average of 52 percent from the field.
Along with Gobert, the Timberwolves have Karl-Anthony Towns and Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid, in what is the league’s best trio of big guys.
Towns is a difficult matchup for Aaron Gordon, bigger and stronger who can stretch out to the three-point line.
At the guards, Edwards and Mike Conley match up with Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. In the opening round, Murray had clinching shots in Game 2 and Game 5 of the opening round, scoring 32 points the series-clinching Game 5.
The Wolves should employ different defenders to guard Murray, with Conley (a former All-Defensive team member in his heyday), Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
On the flip side, the Nuggets will stick Caldwell-Pope on Edwards, and it is likely that in some situations they have Gordon guard him. Having Gordon guard him for a majority of the time, though, would allow Towns to feast.
Michael Porter Jr. is another matchup, and maybe the matchup, that the Wolves will struggle with most. At 6’10 with the ability to fill it up from beyond the arc, the Wolves don’t truly have a defensive matchup for him. Towns could defend him at times.
Both teams have strong benches, with Alexander-Walker, Kyle Anderson, and the aforementioned Sixth Man of the Year Reid on Minnesota and the Nuggets with Reggie Jackson, Christian Braun, Justin Holiday, and Peyton Watson. Reid should dominate against the Nuggets’ second unit, while the Wolves will need to be mindful of Holiday from the outside. The Wolves have the bench advantage.
Edwards, Murray, and Jokic figure to get theirs, no matter who is defending. The interior matchups are fascinating - Jokic against the duo of Gobert and Towns. Towns will need to play big in order for the Wolves to win the series.
In their first round matchup last playoffs, Murray averaged 27.2 points on 47 percent shooting. Edwards averaged 31.6 points on 48 percent. Towns averaged 18.2 points and 10.2 rebounds, but will need to up that to over 20 points in this series. The Wolves also were without Reid in last year’s series, which makes a big difference. Jackson, Watson, and Braun were barely part of the Nuggets’ playoff rotation last season, but this year have taken on a bigger role with the departures of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green.
This series will be more competitive than last season. The Nuggets do not have the depth that they did last season, while the Wolves improved theirs. It is difficult to pick against the defending champions, but this year’s Wolves seem different. Wolves in 7.
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