In any professional sport, the top overall pick in a draft has certain expectations.
Franchise changer. Culture shifter. League altering. The baseline expectation is a multiple-time all-star. The preferred ceiling is a Hall of Famer that is able to lead his team to a championship.
Throughout NBA history, many No. 1 selections have checked those above criteria.
Elgin Baylor to the Minneapolis Lakers in ‘58. Hall of Famer and one of the greatest players the league has ever seen. Ditto for Oscar Robertson in ‘60, who won a title in ‘71. Walt Bellamy in ‘61? Hall of Famer. 1968-1970 was the first time that Hall of Famers went in consecutive order - Elvin Hayes, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Bob Lanier.
Bill Walton and David Thompson, both Hall of Famers, went back-to-back in ‘74 and ‘75. After Magic Johnson in ‘79, there was a string of future Springfield stars. From ‘82-‘85, James Worthy, Ralph Sampson, Hakeem Olajuwon and Patrick Ewing were Hall of Fame No. 1’s in consecutive drafts. Then there was David Robinson in ‘87, Shaquille O’Neal in ‘92, Chris Webber in ‘93. Allen Iverson and Tim Duncan in ‘97 and ‘98. One year prior to LeBron James in ‘03, there was Yao Ming in ‘02. After James, in ‘04, there was Dwight Howard. In due time, that will be a consecutive trio of Hall of Famers.
Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, John Wall, Kyrie Irving, and Anthony Davis from ‘08-‘12 provided a high quality stretch of top picks - Griffin and Wall were stars before injury issues hindered them, while Rose had injuries too but was first a league MVP before enjoying a long career (15 years) as a productive complementary player (17.4 points per game). Karl-Anthony Towns, the No. 1 selection nine years ago by the Minnesota Timberwolves, has been named to four all-star teams and is on his way to fifth this season. He could be Springfield-bound one day.
In the history of the league, there have been 19 overall No. 1’s that have ended up Hall of Famers. This does not count James, Howard, Davis, and likely Griffin, Irving, and Towns.
As the evidence suggests, drafting the top overall pick is as much a crap shoot as it is a sure thing. James, with potential and hype behind him while also being uniquely polished as a high school player, was destined to be great. Kwame Brown, the top pick in ‘01 from Glynn Academy in Georgia, found a niche as a 12-year role player but did not live up to number one billing. There was Davis in 2012, but Anthony Bennett in 2014. Bennett, out of UNLV, never really found a true position in the league. Drafted at age 20, he was out of the league by age 24. Pervis Ellison, 1989’s overall number one, spent one season in Sacramento and was the Most Improved Player (20.0 points, 11.2 rebounds) in ‘92 with the Washington Bullets before averaging double-digits just one more time (17.4 points, 8.8 rebounds in ‘93) over his final nine seasons.
2019’s draft saw one of the most intriguing No. 1 draft choices. One that was to be that franchise changer and culture shifter.
Zion Williamson was a manchild as a Spartanburg, SC high school player - his highlight tape akin to a father playing against his kids in the driveway. At Duke, Williamson was 6 foot 7, 285 pounds. Drafted to the same Pelicans that chose the aforementioned Davis in 2012, Williamson was tagged as the one of the next faces of the NBA, its next generational player.
When he has been at the top of his game, Williamson has looked like that player. But staying on the court has been an issue. Six years in, and Williamson has played 190 games. His production vehemently denies a bust claim, but he has not reached his pre-draft expectations either.
It is a rather strange dynamic.
22.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 58 percent shooting in 24 games as a rookie.
27.0 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 61 percent shooting in 61 games in his second season.
His 2022-2023 season, coming off a missed 2021-2022 campaign, was off to a great start (26.0, 7.0, 4.6, 61 percent) until a hamstring injury suffered in a January 2023 game at Philadelphia cost him the remainder of the season.
Over his first 99 career games, he shot 60 percent from the field.
Then there was last season. 70 games, 57 percent shooting. Averages of 22.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.0 assists in the regular season. Followed up by a career night in the Pelicans’ play-in game against the Los Angeles Lakers.
April 16, 2024. In front of a national audience, Williamson put up 40 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 assists against James, Davis, and the Los Angeles Lakers. It was a loud response to a 133-89 Laker blowout of the Pelicans in the In-Season Tournament just four months prior, Williamson just 6-for-8 for 13 points in that IST game. People expected and wanted more. In the April play-in game, they got what they wanted. There were no questions about it: Williamson, sharing a floor with two top 75 players - one of whom is considered one of the greatest players ever - was the best player on the floor.
Williamson’s light was dimmed late in the game when he exited with a hamstring injury. The Lakers won 110-106, and the Pelicans, who beat the Sacramento Kings three nights later to take the number eight seed in the conference, were swept in their first-round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder as they competed without Williamson.
This season, six games in, got off a promising start. 22.7 points, a career-high 8.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in 31 minutes per. Shooting a career-low 45 percent, Williamson had rough nights against the Portland Trail Blazers (4-for-15 and 3-for-12) before 31 points and 8 rebounds against the Warriors. During that first Warrior game, a TNT affair, color commentator Reggie Miller referred to Williamson as one of the best young stars in the game. Williamson had a poor outing 24 hours later against those same Warriors, shooting just 5-for-20. But 48 hours later against the Indiana Pacers, he put up 34 and 10 rebounds. After missing tilts on Nov. 3 and 4 against the Atlanta Hawks and Trail Blazers, he went 9-for-18 with 29 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists in a loss to the Cavaliers on November 6.
Then came another injury blow.
This past Saturday, one day after Williamson was unavailable for a game at the Orlando Magic, it was announced that he would be out indefinitely with a left hamstring strain, and re-evaluated in the coming weeks. The injury occurred in the Cavaliers contest, where he scored 23 second half points.
The injuries for the Pelicans have piled up, as Williamson is added to Dejounte Murray (fractured hand), C.J. McCollum (right adductor), Herb Jones (shoulder strain, rotator cuff), and Jordan Hawkins (back) on the injury report. Thankfully for the team, Trey Murphy is probable for Monday night’s contest against the Brooklyn Nets.
For Williamson, his latest injury, in particular the “indefinitely” label, is another concerning circumstance for the two-time all-star. Someone of his size and his athleticism generates so much force at a high speed that he is more prone to injuries than the average athlete, let alone basketball player. Also unfortunately, despite his success on the floor when he is healthy, he is drifting into the What If? territory.
Bluntly, he is a player that is great at his best, but is hardly seen at his best because he is in and out of the lineup often. When he is on the floor, he presents the issue of a wrecking ball with handles and an honest jump shot. In past seasons, and without Murray this season, he has been the Pelicans’ primary initiator. He gets to the basket at will going to his left, his dominant side, especially when he has a full head of steam. Such was on display against the Cavaliers last week, when in the fourth quarter he drove and got to the line consistently, keeping his team within striking distance. As he proved in last season’s play-in game against the Lakers, he can be the best player on the floor when superstars are on the other side.
But like so many stars before him - Bill Walton, Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway, even the 2011 MVP Rose - we may not get to see Williamson at his true best.
We know Walton’s best to be in 1977, when he was only 24 years old. Had he been healthy throughout his career, he could have exceeded his aged 24 numbers. Rose was 22 when he won MVP, the youngest MVP in league history. Hill’s best statistical season came when he was a little older: 27. One year later was when an ankle surgery went wrong for Hill and he would never be the same, despite a distinguished career as a role player (he eventually was a Hall of Famer, part of the 2018 class). Hardaway was 24 when his knee started bothering him. He played 78 games over the next two seasons before, like Hill and Rose, reverting to complementary status.
The April play-in against the Lakers was a glimpse of what Williamson could do, but it was only one game, and unless you watch the Pelicans on a consistent basis, you don’t get to see Williamson showcase his skills consistently.
Williamson, sadly and unfortunately, is heading toward the territory of those like a Hill or Hardaway. Branded as the next while briefly looking like the next. Briefly being the key word.
Walton, Hill, Hardaway, and Rose all gave us a pre-injury sampling, with seasons of sustained play at their apex. With Williamson, we have gotten the smallest sample of that group, a sampling that we want to see turn into the entire meal but ends up being no more than an appetizer.
Still, observers should scale back when labeling him a bust. Busts are typically players that cannot translate their games to the pro level, that cannot handle the NBA game or lifestyle - too immature, perhaps. Williamson can more than hold his own on the court, but for whatever reason, his body seems to keep betraying him. That is not a bust. It is a great player who cannot shake injuries. There is a difference.
Still just 24 years old, Williamson can salvage things. But only if his health checks out. That seems to not be the case again this year, which is too bad for him and Pelican fans, a team that had such high expectations with the offseason acquisition Murray joining Williamson, McCollum, and Brandon Ingram. For Williamson’s sake and the Pelicans, hopefully his injury does not linger. If Williamson continues to not be able to rid himself of the injuries though, we will be asking one question years from now.
“What if?”
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